Kill That Cow!

In the 1970’s I was a member of the Futurist Society. Futurists predict the future based on what is deemed the best verifiable evidence logically extrapolated. I accepted their pronouncements at face value, since they had studied and researched the issues (I believed) at depth. I looked forward to each issue of their magazine for one particular writer's articles which were always well written and interesting. The new issue arrived and I attempted to read some of the other articles first, a small stab at delayed gratification, but soon turned to my favorite author and with a smile began reading. When finished, I felt a bit unsettled. I couldn’t put my finger on it but it troubled me. So after about a week I went to the library to do some research. Firing up the microfiche (remember microfiche and cabinets filled with microfilm) I located the statistics I was looking for and identified the problem. The author had reversed the statistics that supported his position! I felt relieved and a little proud. I reasoned that some underling had provided the statistics to the author incorrectly and a correction would be forth coming. However the next issue arrived and nothing was mentioned. I surmised that by the time he became aware it was too late for this issue but would certainly be in the next. Well he did address it in the next issue. The response was one of the most over the top, vitriolic pieces of junk I, to this day, have ever read. Not only did he defend his position and facts, anyone who disagreed with him was an idiot! I was left stunned and breathless. I rechecked the facts to see if I misread them. Nope. The sacred cow of blind trust died that day.

Sacred cows are everywhere. Many are inherited, some quietly strolled in and we have not bothered to do the work to turn them out, usually because if we do we are afraid of what we will find when they are gone, since sacred cows are notoriously poor house keepers. We must not be afraid to ask questions and seek the truth, since: the truth will set you free. Trust, but verify.

I didn’t renew my membership in the Futurists Society. Looking back, one of their predictions for 2000 (then 25+ years in the future) was, that if we didn’t act immediately, the world was about to be plunged into a new ice age,  beyond any doubt, no further discussion required, settled science. All the top climatologists said so.